Gou's Election Wealth Distribution
The Storm Media Editorial, June 21, 2023
The ancient proverb "Those who are trustworthy get rewards in business" emphasizes the importance of honesty and integrity in business. However, it seems that this principle doesn't exist in the dictionary of Terry Gou, the founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn). Although Gou failed to win the Kuomintang (KMT) ticket to run for the presidency in 2024, there were rumors that he was considering gathering signatures to run independently, with the decline in popularity of the KMT's chosen candidate Hou Yu-ih. Guo has been consistently contacting grassroots supporters and even invited Director Sandra Oudkirk of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) through a Facebook post to "discuss the Kinmen peace declaration" face-to-face.
This is the second time that Gou has disturbed the nomination rhythm of the KMT. Four years ago, two months after he lost the primary election to Han Kuo-yu, he announced his withdrawal from the KMT and strongly criticized the Party. This year, Gou turned around and sought the KMT's nomination again, first apologizing to the party and then putting on a show to reconcile with Han. He also claimed that it would be impossible for him to cooperate with Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). After the primary, he promised to support Hou but immediately complained he had been "deceived by the KMT." Having taken a vacation to Japan earlier this month, he promptly went to Kinmen and staged a "solemn pledge" drama with Ko. But who exactly is taking the initiative and who is being passive? Gou and Ko each have their own versions of the story.
Over the past month, Gou hasn't put down his aspirations to run for the presidency in 2024. Perhaps he’s genuinely concerned about cross-strait relations (promoting peace declaration) and Taiwan's development (promoting AI and energy). However, local political figures, mainly both KMT-affiliated and non-partisan county council speakers have never given up on the idea of urging Gou to run for the presidency.
Gou has been oscillating in some of his decisions, including whether to run for the presidency, who to pick as a running mate, and if he should opt to run independently. His indecisiveness can be attributed to his insistence that investments must yield returns while failing to realize that political investments do not necessarily guarantee rewards. After his retirement in recent years, Gou has developed a strong interest in politics, perhaps thinking that since he has reached the top in business, he can also climb another summit in politics. While there are instances where political investments can yield returns, betting on a candidate and betting on oneself are drastically different.
Gou must have harbored the thoughts that participating in the KMT primary would guarantee him support and secure the nomination; otherwise, he wouldn't have thrown himself into the primary in the first place. On the contrary, if he had initially focused on collaborating with Ko Wen-je from the TPP, it would have undoubtedly generated more attention and momentum than seeking the KMT nomination. Unfortunately, Gou chose the KMT first, and then approached the TPP, wasting his own agenda power. Now, Ko has steadily garnered more support in the polls without Gou's contribution. It is impossible for him to step back and become Ko’s running mate after Ko has already officially been accorded the nomination from the TPP. That would undermine the TPP's autonomy and could even invite malicious speculations about coveting Gou's financial support to the party. Even Ko himself would not accept being manipulated by a political patron.
In simple terms, according to Gou's original calculation, compared to the KMT, the TPP has a lower chance of winning the presidential election of 2024. However, public opinion is fluid, and politics is not as predictable as business. At least the TPP could offer him a ticket to run for president, whether it be as the presidential candidate or the vice-presidential candidate. Now, with Gou's wavering thoughts about running independently, his political calculations are becoming worse because the probability of winning as an independent candidate is even lower. Since the direct election of the president was introduced in 1996, James Soong, among all the independent candidates, came closest to winning. He relied on his outstanding performance and the extensive grassroots resources of the provincial government. However, these resources are already depleted as Soong squandered them to sustain his political career for the last two decades.
It is highly questionable whether Gou can replicate the same level of influence as former Governor James Soong by relying on "grassroots connections" for an independent candidacy. If he believes that gathering less than 300,000 petition signatures for an independent candidacy is not a difficult task, then he is oversimplifying the matter. In fact, most of the previous twenty-five independent candidates had failed to cross the threshold of 140,000 petition signatures, resulting in the forfeiture of their deposit of NT$1 million (about US$32,000). Perhaps NT$1 million is not a problem for Gou, but the question is whether spending such an amount of money only to become the subject of ridicule is worth it.
In other words, if Gou still believes that "running for office means winning," then independent candidacy is the least of his concerns. However, if his goal is simply to utilize the presidential campaign as a stage to promote his ideas on peace declaration between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, then it may be worth a try. Its impact would probably be more significant than United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) founder Robert Tsao’s donation of NT$ 1 billion to strengthen national defense. Tsao once said, "Nobody listens to you when you talk, but they start listening when you donate a billion dollars." If Gou successfully gathers enough signatures for an independent candidacy, he may have a chance to compete in televised presidential debates and present his views. Being a billionaire certainly gives him the privilege to be more assertive. Besides, local political figures and legislative candidates would like to side with him to garner additional financial resources.
A successful 73-year-old entrepreneur, Gou has the privilege to choose if he should run for president, and how he should do it if he so chooses. Particularly, pursuing an independent candidacy through gathering signatures is something that would not be heavily scrutinized for his "integrity and commitment." However, if he were to demand the KMT hold another primary with the intention of "switching candidates," the impact would be no less significant than the incident of changing Hung Hsiu-chu four years ago. According to the regulations of the Election and Recall Act, Gou still has three months to gather signatures for an independent candidacy. If the Kuomintang is subjected to another three months of "torture," their already declining momentum may dwindle further, and Gou's chances of winning would still remain extremely slim.
It is unlikely that Gou's goal of "running to win" can be achieved. However, if he insists on running, it could potentially undermine the KMT, not just Hou, but also affecting all the legislative candidates. This is even more favorable to TPP, as it allows Ko to make advanced preparations for enlisting candidates from other camps before or after the election.